Market outlook for the second half of 2004

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Market outlook for the second half of 2004


1. The micro impact of macroeconomic regulation and control will appear in the third quarter, and the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates in July cannot be ruled out. In this way, the macroeconomic inflection point formed by the transformation from interest rate reduction to interest rate increase will become the biggest psychological pressure for institutional investors

2. The expansion pressure will continue to exert direct pressure on the capital, including the accelerated issuance and listing of the small and medium-sized enterprise board, the allotment of 600050 shares of China Unicom, and the initial offering of super aircraft carriers such as four major commercial banks and insurance companies

3. Technically, with the gradual clarity of the news in mid July, the market will complete the bottom rebound, and the bottom position can be 1350-1380 points, while the rebound height is 1580-1600 points

4. After a continuous quarter of decline and a 25% decline in the short-term market index, the oversold rebound will become the mainstream of the short-term rebound in the future. The mid line opportunities will be reflected in some industries with obvious policy support, and the long-term opportunities will be reflected in some industries with technological revolution

on June 29, the Shenzhen composite index fell below the low point in November last year, approaching the position at the start of the 5.19 market, hitting a new low in the past five years. As a market leading indicator, its breaking trend shows that the market is entering the freezing point, which also indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has a further bottoming process. We believe that after a quarter of continuous decline and a 25% decline in the short-term index, the market is expected to form an oversold rebound after bottoming out after the news is further clear in mid July. There will be greater pressure around 1600 points. With the micro manifestation of macro-control pressure, the market will fall back to below the annual line again in August under the pressure of interim and quarterly reports

I. The impact of the SME board on the main board market

on June 28, eight new shares fell by the limit on the second trading day of the listing of the SME board, resulting in the full set of 3.6 billion yuan of funds traded on the first day, and the short-term capital chain of the market suddenly broke. The opportunity brought by the SME board, which the market expected, became a "miracle". In addition to these negative effects, where are the positive factors of the SME board

1. The market ushers in a new price comparison structure relationship

the high positioning of the SME board is expected to reverse the continuous downward trend of the price focus of the whole market. In the short term, the main board will still form a new stabilization driven by the price comparison relationship of the SME board. As of late June, the weighted average price of a shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was only 6.5 yuan, falling below the level of 1307 points. Similarly, the average p/E ratio of a shares also fell below 28 times, touching the bottom of several stages in history. The average price of the market has fallen all the way from 15 yuan in 2000 to the current low level. The idea that the size of the circulation market determines the level of the stock price has been completely overturned and replaced by the concept of value investment and the concept of market liquidity. At present, the launch of the SME Board will once again have an impact on the investment concept of the whole market, although in the medium term, the impact of this investment concept remains to be seen, In particular, the mining of growth will be more incisively and vividly displayed in the SME board, and this investment concept will further affect the future investment orientation of the main board market; However, in the short term, the launch of the SME board is more reflected in the impact on the stock price structure of the whole market, especially when the current average market share price is at the bottom of the historical region, this impact is undoubtedly clear-cut and powerful. At present, when the average price of a shares is at the bottom of history, the high positioning of the SME board, which is generally higher than 15 yuan, will prompt the market to re recognize small cap stocks. In fact, recently, some small cap stocks in the market have formed a short-term active market under the price comparison effect. Some small cap stocks with relatively low circulating market value, some with relatively low absolute prices, and some small cap stocks that did not rise significantly in the early stage have shown obvious active behavior. On the whole, this price comparison effect is expected to drive a new understanding of the focus of the entire market value

2. The small and medium-sized enterprise board brings new incremental funds while diverting funds

the new eight shares reached 3.6 billion yuan on the first day of listing, which is basically close to the first day of listing of Sinopec 600028, China Unicom, Yangtze Power 600900, etc., that is to say, the new eight shares of the small and medium-sized enterprise board is equivalent to the listing of a super large cap stock. However, unlike the listing of super large cap stocks, due to the characteristics of the SME board, the incremental funds brought by it are more than the participation of market stock funds. Therefore, as more and more SMEs are listed, more and more incremental funds will be driven into the market. From another point of view, historical experience shows that the listing of super large cap stocks generally drives the market to form a bottoming rebound, especially after the small bottoming of the market on the day of the listing of Changjiang Power directly promoted the continuous and rapid rebound of the market. We don't think it is possible to repeat this time, but the opportunity for the market to form an oversold rebound after the formation of another record low is increasing

second, the policy is still not optimistic, but once it is clear, it will promote the market to form a short-term oversold rebound

1. In the monetary policy, the interest rate policy and exchange rate policy are expected to exert pressure on the market

the interest rate policy is still the focus that most affects the market nerves in the whole monetary policy at present. The US dollar interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve at the end of June and China's economic data in the first half of the year in mid July will continue to be the most critical factors whether to raise interest rates in the short term, Before the interest rate policy is not clear, the market may still remain weak. Recently, there are several news worthy of attention: first, there are significant changes in the issuance of central bank bills every Tuesday. Before that, the central bank has been issuing a large number of one-year or even three-year bills to recover long-term funds. On June 22, the central bank stopped issuing one-year bills for the first time since April, and only issued 10billion yuan short-term bills with a period of three months, which is the most positive change in monetary policy recently; Secondly, on June 22, the Research Bureau of the central bank issued a clarification communique, saying that the report of the interest rate increase plan to the State Council was purely a rumor; Third, the briefing of the national development and Reform Commission on June 24 also made it clear that there was no decision to adjust interest rates at present, and there was a retaliatory sharp rebound in the Hong Kong market. As the biggest suspense affecting the market at present, the interest rate hike has always led to the continuous decline of the early market due to the uncertainty of expectations. At present, the clarification of the two major ministries and commissions will undoubtedly stabilize the market sentiment to a great extent

nevertheless, there are still some uncertain factors perplexing the market. First of all, the domestic CPI rose to 4.4% in May, a new high after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and is close to the benchmark one-year loan interest rate of 5.31% set by the central bank, while the CPI is expected to reach a new high in June. Therefore, when the economic data for the first half of the year are released in mid July, it will become a sensitive time for the market; Secondly, the general trend of global interest rate hike cannot be changed. At present, the tension wheel of U.S. interest rate is set at the lowest position in 46 years between the driving wheel and the driven wheel. Once there is an increase, the inflection point will appear. Similarly, China's current interest rate is at the lowest position in 9 years; Third, the exchange rate policy of replacing the dollar peg with a basket of currencies is also expected to lead to the appreciation expectation of the RMB, which virtually increases the pressure on the market. Generally speaking, the whole monetary policy is at a very sensitive moment of reform, and the advance psychological expectation of institutional investors will become a key factor affecting the market

2. In the fiscal policy, the positive fiscal policy is fading out, and the macroeconomic inflection point will now appear

since entering the second quarter, the relevant departments have made it clear that the fiscal policy will change from positive to moderately tight in the future, and the latest statistical data released by the National Bureau of statistics in May shows that the decline in economic data caused by macro-control has exceeded general expectations. In fact, this kind of macro policy regulation appeared in the first quarter. The year-on-year growth of urban fixed asset investment in January this year was as high as 53%, while the growth rate in March quickly fell back to 34.5%, bringing the growth rate of investment in the first quarter down to 43%; By may, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was only 18.3%, down 16.4 percentage points from the previous month. As the macro-control of China's economy has affected the world, its impact is far greater and deeper than market expectations. Take the Baltic Sea dry bulk freight index of the shipping industry as an example. Driven by China's huge import of soybeans, iron ore and crude oil last year, the index once rose from 2200 points in September last year to 5600 points in February this year. With the sudden reduction of China's demand, the index has fallen back to 2600 points

from another perspective, coupled with the waterproof and mildew resistant properties of wood plastic materials, the marginal effect of fixed asset investment on the economy is weakening, resulting in a macro reduction in fixed asset investment. At present, with limited consumption and increased export pressure, a macroeconomic inflection point will appear, which undoubtedly increases the pressure on institutional investors. After China's GDP hit a new high at the end of last year, it will fall significantly in the second quarter. Once the GDP growth falls below 7%, there will be an unprecedented economic depression, which needs to be paid enough attention. Therefore, from the perspective of the middle line, the policy will have a direct impact on the market, while the short-term market may form an oversold rebound when the news is gradually clear

third, the pressure on capital is not optimistic in the future, and the trend of open-end funds to help rise and help fall deserves attention.

the pressure on new share expansion in the second half of the year will still be very obvious. Judging from the current issuance speed of the SME board, the possibility of more than 50 SME boards this year is still quite large, which is equivalent to the issuance of five super large cap stocks, and the probability of including the four major commercial banks starting to list in succession in the second half of the year is also very large, which undoubtedly adds pressure on the restructuring of market funds. In addition, the chain reaction caused by Delong series Zhuanggu diving will continue to be reflected in the context of monetary tightening in the second half of the year. The recovery of some entrusted wealth management funds will also have an impact on the market, including the implementation of QDII and other policies will also divert market funds. Therefore, the situation of fund tension in the whole second half of the year will still be quite prominent

from the perspective of capital supply, although the direct entry of insurance funds into the market hopes to bring the possibility of 50billion yuan of incremental funds, it is very difficult to turn this possibility into reality. At present, the impact of open-end funds on the market is more reflected in helping the market rise and fall. Once the market improves, the redemption pressure of the fund will be reduced, and the fund subscription will be more active. Therefore, the trend of the whole market has become more obvious in the near future. In the process of decline, a continuous decline will be formed, and the process of rise will also last for a long time. Once the future rebound trend is formed, especially if it can close the weekly positive line for two consecutive weeks, This rebound will last for more than two months, which needs to be grasped

IV. with the whole macro-control, it is difficult to find the mid line growth industries. Except for agriculture, electric power, chemical industry, highway and other industries protected by policies, there are no industries with obvious opportunities at present, especially the impact of the whole macro-control will appear in the third quarter, Therefore, it is difficult to find opportunities from the perspective of value investment. Driven by the small and medium-sized enterprise board, the mining of growth may not be enough

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