Market outlook of the hottest coated double offset

2022-08-15
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Market outlook of coated paper and double offset paper in March

release date: Source: golden crown paper number of Views: 3002 copyright and disclaimer

core tips: [China Packaging News] market outlook of coated paper and double offset paper in March 1. Review of cultural paper market in February 1. February coincides with the spring Festival holiday, and the overall trading performance of cultural paper market is light. 2.

2. The market of coated paper was basically stable in February, and the paper mill was still actively pushing up the quality risk of 3 underwriting, which mainly guaranteed the monthly price of contract user enterprise replacement or return risk caused by the quality defects of new materials, and the downstream printing mills were in a strong wait-and-see mood

3. The price of double offset paper was corrected in February, and the terminal increase was RMB/ton. The market showed signs of short-term recovery, and many paper mills were determined to push up prices in March. The ex factory price increase in March was still 200 yuan/ton

II. Coated paper:

at the end of January, two coated paper manufacturers, Ming and Huatai, announced to raise the ex factory price in February. Due to poor downstream demand, the actual shipment this month failed to implement the price increase. The receiving price of end users in major markets remained stable in January

the overall operating rate of coated paper in China before and after the Spring Festival is not high. Although the paper mill has not officially announced the shutdown of the Spring Festival, in fact, some production lines are on and off, and the output is limited. On the one hand, this situation is related to the Spring Festival holiday, on the other hand, it is mainly due to the limited downstream orders, coupled with the sharp decline in the price of coated paper in the fourth quarter of last year, and the paper mill's profit is meager, so the intention to start the paper mill is weak

in the last week of this month, many major coated paper manufacturers in China, including Chenming, Huatai, Taiyang, app and so on, once again announced to raise the ex factory price in March, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. Due to the high concentration of domestic coated paper production, this increase can basically be regarded as a collective push by manufacturers. The downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mood. On the one hand, the price increase lacks demand support, but on the other hand, the price rise of other related paper after the festival has created a good atmosphere for the price increase of coated paper

after several months of sharp decline, coupled with the clearance of inventory before the end of the year, the inventory level of coated paper in the industry traders and downstream printing plants is at a low level. If the future market shows signs of recovery, some traders and printing plants may consider appropriate stock

III. double offset paper

the double offset paper market showed signs of recovery in February. Although the month coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, and the market transaction was not active, with the active promotion of the paper factory, the ex factory price of double offset paper in February was basically implemented, and the increase was announced in the early stage, and the receiving price of terminal printing factory was also increased by yuan/ton accordingly

the smooth implementation of the price hike of double offset paper in February mainly benefited from several aspects. First of all, after the continuous decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, the market price of double offset paper fell to a low level, and at the same time, the reduction of pulp price was limited. In this case, the production profit of the paper mill was reduced. The upstream and downstream of the market as a whole have reached a consensus that the price of double offset paper is at a phased low valley

secondly, in recent months, the operating rate of double offset paper manufacturers has decreased, and the market output and supply have decreased. Although two new paper machines were added to the market last year, it is understood that the new paper machines are basically on and off, and the impact of actual output is limited. Therefore, from the supply side, the paper mill is ready to raise prices

again, after the decline cycle and year-end inventory clearance, the current inventory of double offset paper in the industrial chain of traders and printers is not large. Coupled with the support of the demand for book printing and electrostatic copying paper, the procurement of double offset paper gradually resumed after the festival, and traders and printers actively entered the market to inquire and prepare for storage. The acceptance of the price increase of double offset paper on the demand side is acceptable

finally, as usual, March is the bidding season for paper purchase orders of domestic publishing systems. At a time when publishing orders are about to appear in batches, paper mills are not worried that raising prices will reduce social orders. Therefore, the paper mills are determined to push up the price of double offset paper

at the end of February, a number of major double offset paper manufacturers in China, including Chenming, Huatai, app, sun, Asia Pacific Senbo, MCC galaxy, Jianghe, Dahe and so on, once again issued a notice of price increase for double offset paper. Most of the price increases were implemented from March 1, and the increase was still 200 yuan/ton

outlook for April and March

1 Coated paper

the biggest resistance to the implementation of price hikes in the coated paper market comes from downstream demand. Different from the double offset paper market, the downstream of coated paper is mainly concentrated in magazines, advertisements, commercial leaflet printing, etc. In the current macroeconomic pressure environment, the depression of the real estate industry and the substitution effect of electronic media on journals and magazines have led to the weakening of the demand for coated paper printing

although in the short term, driven by the meager profit of the paper mill and the price rise atmosphere in the relevant market, the price of coated paper may slightly implement the price increase range of the paper mill in March. However, in the long run, if the coated paper price hopes to obtain reasonable profit support, the supply side is bound to need to make a reduction adjustment

at present, the concentration of coated paper production in China has been quite high, and most of the production lines are modern large-scale equipment, so there is no room for the industry to eliminate backward production capacity. Therefore, for the existing large coated paper manufacturers, the paper mills will continue to face the pressure of increasing exports and converting to other paper types in 2019

2. Double offset paper

in the short term, the distance between rollers in the double offset paper market can be adjusted, which is expected to continue the good upward trend in February. The factors supporting the short-term improvement of double offset paper come from many aspects, including the reduction of profits at the production end, the low inventory of the industry chain and the bidding season of publishing orders

although the double offset paper market is also facing the challenges of the external economic environment, the weakening of the overall atmosphere of the paper industry and other negative factors, compared with coated paper, the biggest advantage of the double offset paper market lies in the stability of downstream demand. The main downstream consumer markets of double offset paper, such as teaching aids, party and government periodicals, children's books, commodity manuals and office copy paper, have strong demand rigidity and low sensitivity to changes in the external economic environment. Therefore, after the market supply and demand have reached a new balance, the efforts of paper mills to raise the price of double offset paper are easier to implement

however, in the long run, double offset paper will still face some pressure. In 2019, the market probability of double offset paper will still fluctuate, especially the new production capacity of double offset paper. In order to track the real-time changes of experimental load and other measured values during the experimental process, it will still be a major challenge to the market. For paper mills, developing and subdividing new paper varieties and expanding export will be effective means to alleviate market supply pressure

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