Market outlook of low pressure polyethylene in Mar

The market outlook of low-pressure polyethylene in March

General Comment on the market situation in February

within a week after the material quality fell due to the Spring Festival in February, the domestic low-pressure polyethylene market price performed relatively well, and the continuous rise in the international crude oil price made the domestic plastic product prices all follow the rise, and there was a large surge. After the middle of the year, the market situation of low-pressure polyethylene, which has always maintained a continuous upward trend, gradually shrinks along the vertical material flow direction; On the contrary, it turns dull, and is excessively driven by the rise and fall of prices at the end of the month

the main reasons for the decline in the low-pressure polyethylene market are as follows: first, domestic production enterprises raised prices faster in the early stage, which led to the fact that the prices of products that were highly speculated and soared all the way around the Spring Festival could not be reconfirmed by the downstream industry, the enthusiasm of downstream processing enterprises to pick up goods was reduced, and the price stability that could not be supported by final demand was difficult to sustain. At the same time, traders also sold out because of more profits; Second, imported goods from major domestic ports began to be shipped in a centralized manner, and the price was generally lower than the ex factory price of domestic production enterprises, with the largest gap of 200-300 yuan/ton, which also caused the low-pressure polyethylene market to become more chaotic

current market price level

at the end of February, the domestic low-pressure polyethylene market led by wire drawing materials was in chaos, and the market was full of a large number of goods without tickets. Its shipping price was yuan/ton, - "green manufacturing" and other cleaner production processes were becoming increasingly popular, and the ticket price was yuan/ton; Note the market price of plastics in Shandong fell back to about 7300 yuan/ton, and 7400 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets; In the film material market, due to the large number of low-cost materials imported from the port, it is difficult to ship domestic goods. The price is yuan/ton, and the lowest price of Russian imports is 7100 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of market transactions has become relatively light and the price is relatively chaotic

external quotation trend in January

in terms of external quotation, although the degree of war against Iraq has been reduced, the rise in the prices of crude oil, naphtha and ethylene, especially the shutdown and overhaul of many cracking units in Asia, continues to support manufacturers and traders to look ahead and quote higher prices. The nominal quotation of wire drawing materials from Korean manufacturers is USD/ton, and the quotation of film materials is USD/ton. However, the decline in the Chinese market led to a light market and few transactions. Manufacturers believe that if wholesalers with inventory and traders can be inferred from experiments that they continue to release cheap inventory to the Chinese market, such actions may generate sufficient downward momentum to cause a temporary downward trend

in March, when the market could not accept high prices and transactions were scarce, the increase in the price of upstream raw materials further promoted the rise in the quotation of low-pressure polyethylene. However, Formosa Plastics and other manufacturers said that recently, the ethylene market has risen sharply, and the cost of raw materials has increased significantly. Considering the low profits of downstream processing plants and the limited ability to pass on the risks of increased costs, they are considering absorbing some costs to maintain the long-term demand boom of the entire plastic industry

in terms of the price of ethylene raw materials, the market trading price continued to rise, but its upward trend slowed down significantly. At present, the positive factors driving up prices are still the strong feed cost and tight supply in the ethylene market. However, it is uncertain whether the tight supply situation in the ethylene market can last for a long time, because several producers in Southeast Asia give priority to selling ethylene monomers to occupy market advantages. At the same time, although the supply/demand balance in the Northeast Asian market in March and April is still extremely tight, the news of the decline in polyethylene market prices in China has increased market anxiety

domestic market price trend in March

in the recent market, due to the rapid and large increase in the market price of polyethylene before, and the large drop in the market price of linear high-pressure polyethylene, the leading variety in the early stage, other varieties have also shown a weak trend affected by this, the mentality of traders has changed from wait-and-see to panic, the price has declined, the delivery of petrochemical products has also slowed down significantly, and the inventory of enterprises has increased, But the overall inventory is not much. However, from the perspective of the upward cost driving effect of the soaring price of ethylene raw materials and the stalemate of the war between the United States and Iraq, there is still positive support in the domestic low-pressure polyethylene market in a certain bearish atmosphere. The current market trend in the repair period largely depends on the mentality of traders and the price adjustment of petrochemical enterprises

in the future, the continuous rise in import prices will still stimulate the price trend of domestic low-pressure polyethylene market, but manufacturers and distributors remain cautious about the future, because they are worried that once the US Iraq war breaks out, the market will disappear due to expectations, and the international oil price and petrochemical raw material Market may fall sharply

generally speaking, from the end of February to the beginning of March, the domestic low-voltage market will not decline significantly for the time being, but once the low-voltage production enterprises reduce prices, the market is likely to fall further. The impact of the uncertain international economic situation and the rise in international crude oil prices on China's plastic market will become apparent over time. Once the war factors are eliminated in the future market, the decline in prices may be inevitable