PTA self-sufficiency rate rose from 70 to 96, cont

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PTA self-sufficiency rate rose from 70% to 96% and continued to decline, pointing to 7500 yuan

the annual investment opportunity of the chemical industry often comes from the mismatch of capacity expansion in different links of the industrial chain, which drives the redistribution of profits in the industrial chain caused by the difference in supply and demand pattern in different links. At present, the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) industrial chain has just reached such a critical period of structural change

the second half of 2011 is the time node when PTA's expanded production capacity began to gradually impact the market. It is expected that before September, the production expansion of more than 20% will inevitably drag down the profit margin of PTA to near zero. The loose state of p-xylene (PX) determines that the redistribution pattern of profit margin cannot be transmitted to the upstream. Combined with the weak situation under the pressure of dumping and storage at the crude oil end, we expect the price target of pta1201 contract to be 7500 yuan

and "clean energy utilization, strong industrial base, resources and environment, national defense construction". From the perspective of industrial chain, the clearest opportunity for the chemical industry this year is undoubtedly the expansion of PTA capacity. In the second half of the year, the new capacity of PTA increased significantly by 4.25 million tons. At that time, PTA self-sufficiency rate will rise from 70% in 2010 to 96%. In addition to the stable monthly PTA import volume, the supply of PTA will gradually move towards surplus after the expansion of production. Finally, this surplus pattern will lead to the price of PTA close to the cost. Through historical comparison, it is found that if there is a surplus pattern of PTA and the operating rate eventually drops to about 80% due to the surplus, the production of PTA will lose yuan/ton. Based on the current static price of px1400 US dollars/ton, the production cost of PTA is 8200 yuan/ton, and the static decline target of PTA is 8200 yuan; The pta1201 contract will fall to a loss level below 8000 yuan under greater supply pressure

from a dynamic point of view, we need to consider whether PX will be nervous after PTA expansion. According to the survey, the supply of PX is surplus corresponding to the current PTA output. In June, domestic PTA was intensively overhauled. Due to optimistic about the long-term PX price, a large number of raw materials were hoarded. At present, the tank stock of domestic PX factories is almost full, and Korean traders also have a large number of long-term floating goods on hand. Therefore, we believe that the high gross profit of PX under excess pressure is difficult to maintain. After calculation, the PX price is currently 1410 US dollars, the naphtha to PX processing range is 550 US dollars, and the profit is more than 200 US dollars; The average processing range from 2009 to 2010 was only 380 US dollars. When the Japanese earthquake caused short-term stock shortage in the market from March to April, the processing range of that month was only 600 US dollars. At present, the gross profit of PX produced from aromatic raw materials is close to 2000 yuan/ton, which is much better than that of blended product oil. PX in Asia is under full operation, and two new 1.9 million ton units are put into operation this year. At present, the supply is at an all-time high. Based on the above considerations and the further weakening trend under the current dumping and storage pressure at the crude oil end, we believe that the price of PX will still have 5% room for adjustment

combined with the above analysis, we believe that the price of PTA will continue to decline under the pressure of more opportunities brought by supply and the weak cost of the industrial chain. Static calculation shows that the first target is 8200 yuan and the second target is 7800 yuan, which will cause scald. Pta1201 is expected to be 7500 yuan

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